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Lucy Nicholson / Reuters
The Aster Lake area inside California's Sequoia National Park is usually covered in snow this time of year, but on Saturday it was pretty bare. The snowpack water content in the Sierra Nevada mountain range is only 19 percent of the average for the beginning of January.
It's tempting to attribute the unseasonably warm and dry January completely to the Pacific Ocean temperature pattern dubbed "La Nina," long-associated with reduced precipitation in California.
But wait -- La Nina was also present last winter, when more rainfall than usual drenched Los Angeles and the snowfall in the Sierra Nevada was even higher than normal -- as much as 50 feet in places. Now bare spots are evident even at higher elevations.
"This is truly a tale of two 'Ninas,'" said Bill Patzert, PhD, the world renowned climatologist based at Pasadena's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Patzert has focused his research on the weather implications of La Nina and its opposite, El Nino, associated with wetter than usual winters for California.
Read the original story on NBCLosAngeles.com
So how can two Ninas have such different outcomes? Patzert believes the wildcard is to be found to the north in another meteorological phenomenon known as the "arctic oscillation," a variation in the strength of what can be imagined as an atmospheric barrier.
When the arctic oscillation is in a weak phase, as last winter, cold, moist air can escape the arctic region and head south. But when the oscillation is in a strong phase, as this winter, Patzert said it tends to reinforce the dry influence of La Nina at U.S. latitudes.
Patzert likened it to a "fence" that shields us from the arctic air.
The impact is dramatic. So far this season, the L.A. area has received only 3.76 inches of rain, compared to a normal to-date measurement of 5.24 inches, and 12.28 inches by this time last year, according to the National Weather Service.
In December 2010, we received about 10 inches of rain. Last month, L.A. received only one inch, and not a trace since Dec. 17.
January warm spells are not all that unusual in Southern California. But we're not alone in the warm and dry weather conditions. Apart from the Sierra, snowfall is far below normal in the Rockies of Colorado and the Wasatch Range of Utah.
But there's no shortage of winter in Alaska
Temperatures this past week in the ski resort of Park City, Utah, above 7,000 feet in elevation, have soared well into the 40s. Farther east, parents have been taking their children to outdoor playgrounds in Kansas City, Mo. Tennis players have been bringing out their rackets for outdoor matches as far north as Minneapolis. In the southern tier, the dryness has only intensified the ongoing drought in Texas and New Mexico.
But California faces no imminent drought threat, according to Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District. He credits the storage of water from last winter's bountiful runoff, noting that the MWD's largest Southern California reservoir, Diamond Valley Lake near Hemet, is well over 90 percent of capacity.
The MWD is planning for the possibility that this could be California's driest year on record. But even if that proves to be the case, Kightlinger said there is enough stored water to see us through "three tough years in a row" before cutbacks would be unavoidable.
So how much longer will the warm, dry weather continue?
La Nina might remain in place several more months. What complicates long-range forecasting is the fact that the arctic oscillation has a much shorter period, at times flipping in a matter of weeks or not, Patzert said.
Next month, February, usually is our wettest. Patzert advised it's too early to write off this winter. That said, he's sticking with his forecast that the rest of this season will be drier than usual, but added, "I'm going to keep my fingers crossed that I'm wrong."
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Raise the water rates. Let the lawns die and the swimming pools dry up. Wait a minute, what will happen to all the lawn care companies and the pool sweepers? Look out Oregon and Washington, here they come.
God said he wouldn't flood the land of the evil again, but didn't say anything about drought. Enjoy.
Actually, I was extremely impressed that the article explained the unusual weather development (lack of snowfall) for this area and did not cite an "expert" about the impact of global climate change. Give the writer of the article and MSNBC some credit on this one.
I'm not a skier...can you imagine going down those snow covered slopes...on skis? I like my legs pointing in the right direction. Ski on...dudes!
Its called zero scaping Tony landscaping with special plants and cover...You have to be knowledgeable to do it right..
I don't like lawns either, some of these drought stricken regions could stand to lose a few Golf courses..
A good start is to understand it is called "xeriscaping", not "zero-scaping"...
Any chance that the tsunami in Japan changed the currents by altering the sea floor?
Just wondering.
There goes that global warming again...oh wait.
There is no logical reason why weather patterns can't be influenced by many things, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, the Arctic Oscillation, global warming and more. At present, global warming is not as strong an influence as some of the others, but it will keep increasing as long as carbon emissions are high, whereas the others oscillate and do not tend to increase in strength.
Bunk! Everyone but you seems to understand and accept that THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING! I'll bet the California government can fix this with just one more little tax increase.
Actually, I was extremely impressed that the article explained the unusual weather occurrance and did not cite an "expert" about the impact of global climate change. Give the writer of the article and MSNBC some credit on this one.
I am 53 years old and I can tell you right now...the world is getting warmer...We need to look at the big picture....at the past and what is to come. To ignore experts in science because we want to claim to be all knowing Conservative...anti-Global Warming idiots...is just plain stupid...Oh Wait...stupid is as stupid does (fav quote from Forrest Gump). All the research....most of the credible scientist agree, Global Warming is real. Yes things like weather patterns do happen...but the drastic weather we saw this spring and summer, violent storms at unusual times of year...warming trends when it is usually not warm...are all signs of a shift in temp. Some laugh about it but a rise of a foot or two feet in sea levels will flood many low lying areas...and guess what...a large portion of our crops are grown in coastal areas...Islands will cease to exist...land will be lost...all while populations soar. We need to get with the program and help ourselves and nature by being more observant on how we live and our choices...That is just a fact...unfortunately the idiots who ignore facts and only think of profits will make the rest of us and our world suffer. We only have one Earth...get with it people...I love snow...and I am bummed to no end that we have had none where I live in NC.
Weather varies people. Last year it never stopped raining. It even started to rain again early this year. We all thought, here we go again. But then Dec hit and bingo, we got sunny again. Feb & Mar are the rainy months for CA. If those months don't produce then we won't catch up for the year. So far we are 2 inches behind schedule. That is literally one 2-3 day storm away from averaging out. Yet, we are talking about it as if there is some huge difference historically? It's a hot spell for a large part of the country. Enjoy it while it lasts, which probably won't be for long.
Indeed. In fact I think a couple years back or so they were all set to be draconian on water users and we had late rains and no drought. I just love it when it rains on the water Gestapo's parade.
I remember that. Water on MWF or TTHS depending on the numbers in your address, even/odds. Then half a hillside in San Diego collapsed due to heavy rains. Duh. The houses were built on sandstone and clay. What did you think the geologists meant by "geographically unsound"? But I digress.
It's too early to ring the panic bell. Jan. is a dry month for us. As usual, 60-80 degrees. Wait until March. April at the latest.
Captain Bebops
"Indeed. In fact I think a couple years back or so they were all set to be draconian on water users and we had late rains and no drought. I just love it when it rains on the water Gestapo's parade."
THEY should get draconian on water wasters. You don't need a lawn in the desert and most of Calii is and always was a desert, especially LA. The idiots who live there created their own problem.
Sensationalism is fun, though. Media must make every inconsequential issue as threatening and exciting as possible. Slow news day, perhaps?
""Yeah right""...you are right!
Weather is cyclic! The north US used to be tropical! Then we had ice ages. No humans then! Don't believe this AGW propaganda!
There is a new media source, ProPublica, that all mainstream media is now being directed to use. (look ProPublica up and see who the founders' close friend is in the WH, and all the Soros organizations, Acorn they donate to)
We will be bombarded with global warming propaganda to keep the public brainwashed to garner support for their Carbon Tax scheme. Al Gore needs your money! (His company is Generation Investments Management)
First of all is not la nina but la niña...... Come on people is not that difficult !!. Second; David256 PLEASE! people like you are the ones driving this country to the ground. "lets do more fracturing or lets open more seashore for exploring". I am not a "liberal" (term that is not justify at all) but please let's respect mother nature. Check the NEUTRAL science behind it. Do not pick and choose your scientist for a topic as "SENSATIONALISM" as you called it. This is am open minder because we can not be at so many places at once and by this medium we can see whats going on in other places and perhaps we can learn from it.
I guess people are more interested with "the housewifes of ....." tv show????
I agree with David. This is propaganda sensationalism. And I do NOT watch any of the trashy network shows. Reality shows are ridiculus!
Thank God it's Jan. 10th. We now have all year to prepare for what these jackasses are saying
Texas deserves a drought but california does'nt, just wait the loons will show up here and say so.
golliegeewillikers-1980315
"Texas deserves a drought but california does'nt, just wait the loons will show up here and say so."
The loons live in CA.
Don't worry we can afford water.
But loons are very pretty to look at...never end your sentence with a preposition, never end your sentence with a preposition, never end your senten..........
No droughts, no floods, no hurricanes, no blizzards (this year so far), no tornadoes.....Ahhh MINNESOTA!
be careful of what you brag on. I am not a farmer, but the lack of subsoil moisture here in Iowa is of concern.
Minnesota, Iowa, Well looks like a good place for Wisconsin to chime in. Being raised and again living in Wi. I don't ever recall a winter in 55 years of my life. My 10 years in Cali. Several years in NY. Years in Colo. I have never seen a change in weather lke this. 52 degrees yesterday. unreal. no snow on the ground. I am not complaining. But historiclly will will pay in getting blasted. It has to have a upcoming effect on farming and other outdoor patteren of nature. This just is not right. We missed most of the violent mother nature this passed summer which is also odd. Call it what you want, but some thing is up!
Article is incorrect, there is not 3 years of water in storage. Shasta, the largest lake on the syste, is down to about 60% of full as of today.
Stock up on bottled water, your going to need it.
Shasta is in Northern California. MWD General Manager is talking about Southern California...
sure shasta is in northern cali. i can't count how many years they sent all that water to L.A.
Mike S. where do you think So Cal GETS ITS WATER? Do you know anything about California? REad about it. Inform yourself.
Alfred-971011
"Article is incorrect, there is not 3 years of water in storage. Shasta, the largest lake on the syste, is down to about 60% of full as of today.
Stock up on bottled water, your going to need it."
Quit wasting water on your lawn.
TommyGGG
"Mike S. where do you think So Cal GETS ITS WATER? Do you know anything about California? REad about it. Inform yourself."
Most of it comes from the Colorado River but the so-called natives don't have a clue. Shasta is the backup system for water wasters who need a lawn in a desert.
I like living next to 20% of the world's fresh surface water.
The article wasn't referring to storage in the CA water project system with regards to 3 years of storage. It was referencing the MWD system, which receives and stores Metro's allocation of the 3 Million AF/Y that CA receives from the Colorado River under the Quantification Settlement Agreement.
Tommy GGG - Great advice! You should follow it. So Cal gets most of it's water from Colorado River.
I wondered how many posts there would be before someone brought up global warming......couldn't even make it past one.
Mike S,
I hear ya'. If it was'nt global warming. It would be politics,you just can't win no matter what you do!
Tell Obama to stop flying around in Air Force One just to play golf in Ireland!!!
I bet you didn't say that to "W" Bush!!!
I think Bush went mountain biking on his ranch in Texas.
That's right, Bush was there constantly.
We broke a 90 year record high here in Wisconsin today. Second record broken for the month of January and its only the 10th.
It is the hottest and driest autumn and fall on record for much of the country. Even if people knew for a fact that their use of fossil fuels, along with cutting down all the forests and paving the earth, was causing the earth to die, most of them would not care about it. We have reached a place where humans have no conscience, no concern for their planet, so addicted they are to petroleum, consumption and obesity.
Not to worry, mother nature will clean it all up when we are gone. Now I'm driving my huge SUV down to Krystal and pick up a couple dozen burgers. Oh and by the way, the earth is not "dying". That's silly. It might change a bit and we might be gone, but the earth is not dying. Drama queen.
You forgot to say you were going to hose off your driveway before you left ;)
Arrest the weatherman.
this sounds more Like; EL NUNYA !!!...meaning nothing in store for Cali... oh well, substantiated their Crazy Greed.. would have happened either way, Corruption doesn't REST........
Existing climate patterns like La Nina/El Nino, the arctic oscillation, and the north Atlantic oscillation are interacting in ways we may not have knowingly seen in the recorded past. Whether or not this is "global warming" doesn't really matter, we may simply be seeing a climate regime that is new for this interglacial period. And that could be good news, bad news, depending on where you live. Desertification is a long-term trend in California and may be expanding into Texas.
I don't know where these "experts" get their info. In central Texas, we have had over 12 inches of rain since Dec 1, 2011. The last two days alone we got 2 inches, Houston got even more. Rivers are running high and the lakes are well on their way to repenishing toward normal. Even Midland/ Odessa in west Texas got 18 inches of snow in the last 2 days.
I wanna go skiing in Texas!
Funny. There was no such thing as El Nina until they invented El Nino. If it's not an El Nino Year it must be an El Nina year. Stupid. How about it's just a dry Winter? Or wet Summer? Poor weather people trying to be hip and cool.
El Bluto will bring snow, rain and excessive heat beginning in March. It's gonna be tough constantly changing clothes to deal with it.
Yup.. in Texas it's chicken one day and feathers the next.
Alfred. You obviously know.....and now we can purchase bottled water from Nestle that owns most of the water rights to McCloud which is just up the road from Shasta. Rainfall varies year to year but someday McCloud will rue the day that they sold out to Nestle.
Texas may not be out of danger yet. Granted north Texas just had a nice couple of days of rain, but the rains are not coming as close together as they did Oct.-December. It's the frequency of the rains that will partly determine whether we get out of this drought. Every three weeks just won't do it.
isn't that the same lake that is on the windows vista background?
BS!! GeoEngineering caused this lack of snow.
The major cause this year was our Pineapple Express. This year we sent most of our excess moisture to Washington state. Want proof? Rapid melting of snow that did/does fall. You can Google P E weather.
50 years in San Francisco, no water shortages here in Honolulu. Alohaaaaaaaa
Look MSN called it La Nina, instead of global weather domination warming.
I'm blaming it on either George Bush or Al Gore. Just not sure which. I live in the central Sierra. We need rain and snow!
Just a quick comment: Winter is young yet. Didn't begin until Dec. 21. Two and a half months to go.
.. First it was the Great Flood and now the Great Drought. I get the feeling we have been bad again.. yikes!
Is el nino democrat or republican?
www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_64217.shtml for all you need to know about weather modification